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2024 is an exciting year in the history of encryption. The price of Bitcoin has reached a historic high, the blockchain infrastructure has been significantly improved, stablecoins have found a product-market fit, and Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have been approved. At the same time, US legislation and regulatory environments are paving a positive path for the industry. All of these are laying the groundwork for the continued outbreak in 2025.

For the US stock market, the emergence of Bitcoin spot ETFs is obviously of great significance. They have expanded the investment channels for retail and institutional investors in Bitcoin, attracted billions of dollars in net capital inflows, and elevated this asset class from a niche asset to a mainstream asset. This may be the most successful ETF in financial history, with assets under management (AUM) exceeding $110 billion in just one year.

In this article, the RockFlow research team will take you through the significant success of the Bitcoin spot ETF on the occasion of its first anniversary, review their top publishing institutions and the profound impact they have brought to Bitcoin and Financial Market, and most importantly, why we believe that in the era of Trump 2.0, the cryptocurrency market will usher in a new era.

## 1. Bitcoin spot ETF launched a year ago, and the crypto market has undergone major changes
After a decade of anticipation, repeated application rejections, and false news that caught the crypto market off guard, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) finally approved the launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF on January 10, 2024.

Shortly thereafter, 11 ETFs entered the market one after another, competing to attract capital inflows. The publishers include asset management companies with asset management scale reaching tens of trillions of dollars - traditional financial giants such as BlackRock and Fidelity, as well as crypto-native institutions such as Bitwise.


Bitcoin spot ETF has attracted a lot of funds since its launch. The acceleration of fund inflows coincides with a period of high market sentiment, which brings fresh blood to various fields of the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Although there was a downturn in the summer of 2024, Trump's victory in the US presidential election in November once again boosted optimism, so the inflow of ETFs was strengthened again.

As of now, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF is about 32 billion US dollars, holding more than 1.10 million bitcoins, equivalent to a total asset size of 115 billion US dollars. These holdings currently account for about 5.7% of the circulating supply of Bitcoin.

On the other hand, Bitcoin spot ETFs account for only about 1% of the total assets under management of all ETFs worldwide, indicating that cryptoassets still have huge growth potential in the future.

Who is behind such abundant funds? In fact, the Bitcoin spot ETF mainly targets three groups - individual investors, wealth advisors, and institutional investors. The 13F document discloses the buyers behind the Bitcoin spot ETF, including both retail and professional investors, as well as hedge funds and financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Millennium Management. This reflects Financial Marekt's growing interest in including Bitcoin in its investment portfolio, and the Bitcoin spot ETF perfectly serves as a bridge between traditional finance and the crypto world.

The RockFlow research team expects capital inflows to continue to accelerate in 2025, and with the relaxation of regulatory conditions, we will also see broader participation from pension funds, family offices, and endowments. Optimistically, the AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs may double.

## 2. ETF publishers and how it affects Bitcoin itself
Once upon a time, GBTC under Canary Release was the main tool for indirect investment in Bitcoin. However, after the mass launch of Bitcoin spot ETFs, GBTC gradually faced challenges due to high management fees. Most new investors (even existing investors) turned to the newly launched Bitcoin spot ETFs because their fees were generally around 0.2% (many even had zero fees at the beginning), far lower than Canary Release's GBTC's 1.5%.

In addition, GBTC is also seeking change and has proactively spun off another lower-fee canary release, Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC), as a low-cost alternative to GBTC.

From the perspective of publishers, BlackRock and Fidelity are clearly the biggest winners. Taking BlackRock as an example, its Bitcoin spot ETF - IBIT currently holds about 540,000 bitcoins, accounting for half of the total bitcoins held by all ETFs. At the same time, Canary Release's GBTC holdings have sharply decreased from 600,000 bitcoins to 200,000 bitcoins, becoming the biggest loser.

On the other hand, BlackRock's IBIT Asset Under Management has approached $60 billion, far exceeding the size of BlackRock's largest gold ETF - IAU ($35 billion), further consolidating Bitcoin's position as "digital gold". According to Bloomberg ETF analysts, IBIT reached the milestone of $50 billion management size in just 227 trading days, breaking the previous record of 1323 days set by iShares' core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG).

Investors choose to support Bitcoin spot ETFs with real money due to their interest in Bitcoin. At the same time, Bitcoin spot ETFs are also affecting the price and market structure of Bitcoin itself. According to Coin Metrics' statistical analysis, as a stable source of demand for Bitcoin, the net inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs has a very significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.

The chart below shows that the large inflow or outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds almost always coincides with the major price fluctuations of Bitcoin.


Especially during periods of strong market momentum or significant increase in capital inflows, the correlation between the two often strengthens, indicating that as publishers buy Bitcoin to meet the needs of ETF investors, it has become a structural driving factor for the rise in Bitcoin prices. With the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, the attractiveness of ETF products to retail and institutional investors has increased, forming a mutually reinforcing feedback loop, thereby attracting more capital inflows.

Of course, it should be noted that the trends of the two are not completely consistent, because in addition to spot ETFs, the broader macro environment, investor sentiment, and market influence of institutions such as MicroStrategy also play an important role.

## 3. In the era of Trump 2.0, the crypto market will usher in a new situation
RockFlow's research team believes that the crypto market will rise further in 2025, mainly due to the entry of crypto-friendly president Trump into the White House. In the previous year, he had repeatedly expressed his support for the crypto economy during his campaign, including but not limited to:

Dismiss the current SEC chairperson Gary Gensler who repeatedly "troubles" the cryptocurrency industry, reduce the sentence of the founder of Silk Road, end the US's suppression and "crusade" against cryptocurrency, prevent the US from further developing CBDC, make the US the world's "cryptocurrency capital", prevent the US from selling its holdings of Bitcoin, establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, suggest using cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem, appoint a cryptocurrency advisory committee and promote rules "made by people who love the industry", and so on.

Trump, who has just taken office, is indeed steadily advancing his commitment to the encryption industry at that time. Therefore, in 2025, the Trump administration and the Republican-controlled Congress may bring significant changes to the encryption field - a welcome change for industry participants.

In addition, in this round of US election, the crypto industry has begun to "show off" and become one of the important top gifters of the election: according to relevant reports, Fairshake, a super political action committee (PAC) supporting cryptocurrency, raised more than $200 million from the crypto industry to help candidates who support cryptocurrency win. It mainly targets Republican and key Democratic candidates, and this move is expected to continue to bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the crypto industry.

It is worth mentioning that as early as December 2024, Trump appointed former PayPal executive Sachs as the "AI and cryptocurrency czar" of the White House. Sachs is seen as a supporter of innovation and the crypto industry. Some crypto practitioners believe that this "crypto czar" is expected to bring more benefits in supporting digital assets.

In addition, during the previous Congress, the US House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT 21), which aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets and allocate jurisdiction between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Although FIT 21 does not meet all the requirements of the cryptocurrency industry, it represents the largest effort made by the US Congress to date.

Also, people's interest in establishing a bitcoin strategic reserve has been reignited. Wyoming Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis recently launched the Bitcoin Act, which will establish a strategic bitcoin reserve for the US and develop a structured bitcoin purchase plan.

In addition to the above, the RockFlow research team expects that the US Federal Bank and other financial regulators will re-examine the encryption policies of the Biden era. Since 2021, regulatory agencies have put pressure on banks to "cancel" controversial encryption businesses by issuing multiple relevant explanations, basically preventing banks from engaging in custody and other activities. Given that Trump has promised to protect the encryption industry from regulatory "persecution", the revocation of these explanations means a significant shift in regulation.

Finally, the increase in Capital Markets activity in the cryptocurrency industry is also an important positive news. With the improvement of regulatory transparency, coupled with factors such as sustained investor attention, increased institutional adoption rates, and increased venture capital funds, related Capital Markets activities (including IPOs) are expected to increase significantly. As the cryptocurrency economy continues to mature, the integration of regulatory development and market enthusiasm will create more opportunities for public listings, M & A transactions, and deeper institutional participation.

## 4. Conclusion
The RockFlow research team believes that financial products represented by Bitcoin spot ETFs are reshaping the cryptocurrency investment landscape. They not only effectively attract institutional and retail investors' capital inflows, but also drive structural demand for Bitcoin. In the past year, they have proven their potential to legalize and expand the use cases of cryptoassets.

Meanwhile, although the Ethereum ETF started slowly, its good development momentum is gradually emerging, and investors' demand for it is increasing. As the market further matures, new opportunities may further enhance the attractiveness of the cryptocurrency market to traditional financial investors. The next wave of ETF inflows may unleash even greater growth.

In 2025, with the expectation of crypto-friendly policies heating up, regulatory environments becoming clearer, institutional investors continuing to enter the market, and strategic reserve plans, the crypto market will usher in a new round of growth cycle.

2024 is an exciting year in the history of encryption. The price of Bitcoin has reached a historic high

2025 US Stock Crypto Guide - How to Participate in This Bull Market Feast?

AI is triggering an arms race among tech giants, with a focus on the planning and construction of large data centers. These data centers require massive power consumption (it is estimated that the energy consumption of a large data center may be equivalent to that of a medium-sized city). Currently, they are surviving through scattered Renewable Energy and old coal-fired power plants.

In the next few years, the large-scale infrastructure construction of data centers will continue, and the demand for electricity will continue to grow at an astonishing rate. So, is there an ultimate solution?

Of course, the answer is nuclear energy.

In this article, the RockFlow investment research team will provide an in-depth analysis of the "end of AI energy" - the most forward-looking sub-field of nuclear energy, and take stock of the investment value of old giants and emerging companies in the nuclear energy concept stocks.

1. Why are tech giants flocking to the nuclear energy track?
In the past few months, tech giants have made a series of announcements related to nuclear energy:

Google collaborates with Kairos Power to develop Small Modularization Nuclear Reactors (SMR). Amazon has reached an agreement with Energy Northwest to fund the development of four small SMRs to meet Amazon's energy needs. Microsoft and Constellation Energy signed a 20-year power purchase agreement, planning to restart the US Three Mile Island nuclear power plant that was closed due to a nuclear accident. Oracle plans to use SMR to power data centers.

In addition, several global private equity giants are considering investing in the nuclear energy sector, including the Carlyle Group, Brookfield Asset Management, and Apollo Global Management.

Almost everyone believes that nuclear energy will almost certainly become an important part of the ultimate energy solution, but some people are concerned that it will not meet the current energy needs of AI fast enough.

In the case of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant, it is very difficult to restart a dormant nuclear facility, which requires crossing regulatory barriers and addressing the inevitable aging of facilities during shutdowns. It is estimated that it will not be restarted until 2028 at the earliest.

However, although Microsoft's nuclear power plant restart plan takes time, it is at least based on known and verifiable technology. However, the most emerging (and commercially available) technological solution in the nuclear energy field, the Small Modularization Nuclear Reactor (SMR), is not.

Traditional nuclear power plants are expensive and take decades to build. After nuclear leakage accidents such as Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima, the public has been resisting nuclear power plants. However, as a simplified nuclear power production solution, SMR has advantages such as flexibility, lower upfront costs, and modular deployment.

The simplest explanation is that it is a smaller version of traditional nuclear reactors. Modularization design can be achieved in the factory (rather than on-site construction), easy to assemble and control, and guaranteed from quality inspection to more predictable supply chain and construction quality. After assembly, they are transported to the site and stacked together to form the entire nuclear power plant.

Although SMR can only produce 50-300 MW of electricity (traditional nuclear power plants generate 1GW), the convenience of building new facilities will compensate for this deficiency. Many designs adopt overall configurations, with steam generators, turbochargers, and main coolant pumps installed inside the reactor vessel. Modern computational fluid dynamics enables engineers to simulate cooling behavior with unprecedented accuracy, while accident-tolerant fuels and advanced new materials improve safety margins and operational efficiency. Therefore, the complexity of installation and maintenance is greatly reduced, while safety is improved by reducing pipelines and potential leakage points.

Currently, there is only one commercially deployed SMR in the world - Akademik Lomonosov, a floating nuclear power plant in Russia that provides power to remote areas of the Arctic. China is also in the early stages of piloting this technology. In addition, NuScale is the only company in the US whose SMR design has been certified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), but due to a lack of commercial interests, it had to cancel the milestone project several years ago.

According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), more than 25 countries are investing in SMR. Well-known energy Data Analysis firm Wood Mackenzie estimates that the global SMR project value will exceed $176 billion in 2024, and by 2050, SMR is expected to account for 30% of the world's nuclear power plants.

And the tech giants are jumping in, which means that providing cheap nuclear energy on a large scale through small facilities is expected to become a reality faster in the coming years.

2. The prospects are good, but SMR also faces multiple obstacles
The most important thing for any nuclear facility is obviously safety, and nuclear power plants are no exception. The core safety task at the beginning of its design is how to keep the core of the nuclear reactor cool if the nuclear power plant suddenly shuts down and stops generating electricity. If the coolant stops circulating, the fuel heat may increase sharply, which may melt and then leak radioactive materials. This situation occurred at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011, when the backup generator responsible for cooling the nuclear power plant was destroyed by a tsunami, ultimately leading to a widespread disaster.

Fortunately, many SMR designs come with passive and self-contained safety systems that do not rely on manual operation or external power sources. Even many SMRs claim that passive cooling does not require external water (they will use more advanced convection methods to cool the reactor).

In addition to being more secure, the main advantages of SMR compared to traditional nuclear power plants include faster construction speed, lower individual costs, and more flexible location (requiring smaller plots of land).

However, there are still many obstacles to the true commercialization of SMR.

The main drawback is that they are much smaller than traditional nuclear power plants, and it is more expensive to produce the same amount of energy than traditional nuclear power plants, making it difficult to generate strong economies of scale. Judging from the few previous landing projects, the early construction of SMR usually faces astonishing cost overruns (budgets will exceed 3-7 times), and the completion time is very long. These problems are repeated in various countries, indicating that there are still systemic problems in cost estimation and construction.

For example, NuScale cancelled its first project in the US due to high costs and lack of customer interest. In contrast, SMR projects in China and Russia have made greater progress (with integrated supply chains, more controlled costs, and guaranteed revenue sources). However, even for them, the cost of building SMR is still much higher than initially estimated.

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Fortunately, although the design and construction process of SMR is lengthy, it is still much faster than purchasing (or building) traditional nuclear power plants. Moreover, these small nuclear reactors have high flexibility in location, are relatively reliable and stable, and support uninterrupted operation around the clock.

These are even more important for tech giants and giant data center operators who urgently need energy support and are relatively insensitive to costs (because their software services have higher gross profit margins and can afford higher costs). Therefore, for them, in addition to finalizing a certain amount of clean energy such as solar energy, vigorously supporting SMR should be a necessary path.

3. Who is the next stock with 10x in the nuclear energy industry?
The current nuclear energy industry has gathered a group of emerging companies such as NuScale and Oklo, as well as established and mature companies such as Westinghouse that have been working in the industry for a long time. Even Rolls-Royce, one of the world's three major aviation engine manufacturers (although it is synonymous with luxury cars in the eyes of ordinary people), began developing miniature nuclear reactors in 2021 and worked with the United Kingdom Space Agency to study how to use nuclear energy for space exploration.

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In fact, since Microsoft announced a partnership to expand the Three Mile Island nuclear power project a few months ago, and Google and Amazon subsequently announced a nuclear energy partnership, the stock prices of NuScale, Oklo, and others have experienced several rounds of significant increases (and decreases).

NANO, as a representative of miniature nuclear reactor technology, is not only flexible but also has high deployment efficiency, especially suitable for the rapid energy supply needs of energy-scarce areas; Oklo has attracted much attention with the early investment support of OpenAI founder Sam Altman; in addition, NuScale Power, as the leading player in miniature modularization reactor (SMR) technology, has also become a hot cake under the goal of Carbon neutrality due to its scalability and low cost advantages.

Next, the RockFlow investment research team will provide you with an in-depth analysis of several of the most promising US nuclear energy concept stocks.

NuScale Power（SMR）
As a newcomer in the nuclear energy field, NuScale (note: its stock code is also SMR, which is not the same concept as the SMR small Modularization nuclear reactor mentioned earlier) has the most significant advantage that it is currently the only company in the US whose SMR design has been certified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) (the certification was issued in July 2022). Although other companies are striving to obtain regulatory approval in the US, NuScale, with its first-mover advantage, is more likely to use this momentum to maintain its lead in the future.

However, NuScale's biggest problem was the cancellation of their first SMR project (a carbon-free power project approved by regulatory authorities). The project was first launched in 2015, and in the following years, cost estimates continued to rise, from $4.20 billion to a final freeze frame of $9.30 billion. In November 2023, due to insufficient customer interest (not enough utility companies committed to purchasing power), NuScale was forced to terminate the project. This also dealt a huge blow to the stock price at that time.

Fortunately, SMR caught up with the new nuclear power wave in 2024. They have reached an agreement with Standard Power to build a new project aimed at powering the Data Center, which is expected to be put into use and generate revenue in 2029.

From a technical perspective, NuScale's SMR design is indeed better than other energy solutions, as it is cost-competitive, safe, and scalable. NuScale power modules are completely factory-manufactured, do not require on-site construction, and operate using conventional nuclear fuel, which is widely available and has an established regulatory framework. This makes costs more predictable and has lower operating and maintenance costs than traditional nuclear reactors.

RockFlow's research team believes that SMR's technology is relatively mature and it is currently the only company approved to build nuclear reactors in the US. Despite its poor financial situation, the company is expected to continue to rise with the improvement of its financial prospects. With the factory put into use, its financial situation is expected to improve. Although it is still a small company, there is a lot of room for growth.

However, the risk lies in the fact that it will take several years for the project to truly start production and generate revenue, which is an important risk that investors need to consider.

OKLO
As a rising star, OKLO has many reasons to be optimistic.

Firstly, small-scale Modularization reactor technology is not new. There are precedents in the world, which greatly reduces the execution risk of "starting from scratch". The company is launching the construction of its first power plant, and as part of its cooperation with the NRC, OKLO has piloted some new types of license applications, which should simplify the process. In addition, the company plans to sell electricity instead of reactors, which means they face fewer obstacles.

Secondly, in terms of business, OKLO has a large amount of cash and a relatively stable burning rate. Although it has not yet generated meaningful income, its quarterly loss is about 12 million US dollars, and Current Assets exceed 230 million US dollars, so its liquidity situation is relatively considerable.

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In addition, although the company's focus has been on the design and planning of core products, sales and development work has also begun, and OKLO has more than 2 GW of potential power purchase agreements, with customers including Equinix, Diamondback Energy, and the Defense Logistics Agency.

Finally, the potential economic benefits of OKLO are very good. Currently, OKLO expects the cost of building a 15MW power plant to be about $70 million. Once a certain scale is achieved, the cost is expected to drop to $60 million. Based on the recent Data center PPA contract price ($100/MWh), the 15MW power plant generates $36,000 in revenue per day, equivalent to $13.10 million in annual revenue, and the highest profit margin is expected to be as high as 60% after stable operation. In addition, once the company's nuclear waste recycling solution is put into use, considerable cash flow can also be obtained from the front-end investment in plant and fuel costs.

RockFlow's research team believes that OKLO has strong appeal in terms of reactor products, future markets, fit, and unit economic benefits. Optimistically, we can expect to see 2-7 power plants put into operation in 2028 and 5-12 power plants put into operation in 2029. For a company that may lead a new era of global energy, the current 3 billion market value is not expensive.

NANO Nuclear(NNE)
NNE is a micro nuclear reactor development company. Since its IPO in May 2024, its stock price has risen sharply, from a low of $3.25 to a recent $23. Although the stock price has risen sevenfold, there is still a long way to go before achieving the monetization of micro nuclear reactors.

Latest news shows that NNE plans to launch monetization micro nuclear reactors Zeus and Odin between 2030 and 2031. The company is simultaneously developing several Lines of Business - fuel manufacturing, fuel transportation, and nuclear consulting services, which will generate some revenue in the short term to assist in the development and licensing of its main business.

According to the previous financial report, the company's micro nuclear reactors Zeus and Odin are mainly aimed at four key markets: mining operations for remote power generation; the shipping industry for ship power; electric vehicle charging infrastructure; and data centers and AI computing facilities. The most sought-after among them is obviously providing micro reactors for data centers and AI computing facilities.

It should be noted that since its establishment in February 2022, the company has accumulated a net loss of $14.94 million without generating any revenue. As of June 30, 2024, its cash and equivalents were $13.80 million. After several rounds of equity stake financing, the cash position increased to $125 million. Currently, cash is still abundant, and considering the relatively small cash consumption of $2.54 million in the previous quarter, they still have a long way to go in the future.

However, with the development of the company's consulting business, nuclear fuel transportation department, new nuclear fuel production facilities, and micro nuclear reactor research and development activities, cash consumption is expected to increase significantly in 2025.

NANO's technology roadmap indicates that the company will enter the demonstration phase and build its nuclear reactor test bed in 2025-2026. Once they can prove the feasibility of micro nuclear reactors (equivalent to the end of the exploration phase), it is expected to gain more market confidence and attract speculative funds to enter the market.

As for the roadmap after that, they expect to start business operations in 2031 because it involves obtaining permission from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Currently, this is a relatively optimistic expectation.

BWXT
The RockFlow research team believes that although small-scale Modularization technology may be the future, there are also good low-risk options in the nuclear energy track, such as BWXT.

The company's more precise positioning is actually a defense contractor specializing in building and maintaining nuclear reactors for the US Navy. It also produces nuclear fuel and components for nuclear energy companies in the US and Canada. The business is very predictable, with long-term contracts and safety clearances from the Navy, and abundant free cash flow.

Currently, the reactor technology available for naval vessels is sufficient to build small (20-300MW) or micro reactors (1-20MW); but the key lies in cost and IPO time. According to the company, its expertise and supply chain (including fuel manufacturing) are very strong competitive advantages. However, a potential obstacle may be obtaining safety licenses for military technology for commercial use.

BWXT's commercial business currently accounts for 19% of total revenue and has lower profit margins than its defense business. The company expects to grow by 5% -10% year-on-year next year, thanks to the contract signed with CANDU (Canadian reactor) and several projects for mining, space, shipping, and data center nuclear reactor monetization.

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From a valuation perspective, compared to companies like Nuscale, BWXT is very cheap. RockFlow believes that it is a defense Monopoly Enterprise with monetization nuclear energy opportunities. As the company obtains a larger proportion of revenue and cash flow from commercial businesses, its premium over defense companies will gradually become apparent. Although companies like SMR and OKLO claim to have advanced technology, they have not yet been monetized or fully validated. BWXT has mature technology and manufacturing capabilities, making it a good choice.

Of course, it should be pointed out that the main risk facing the company in the future is that for national security reasons, its small or micro nuclear reactor technology may not be monetized. This may limit the company's growth potential, and as a result, related businesses may be subcontracted to multiple companies instead of being built, sold, and maintained as a whole set of new SMRs.

4. Conclusion
The RockFlow research team believes that the energy consumption demand of AI Data Center is growing exponentially. At a time when traditional energy sources are struggling to sustain, the investment value of the nuclear energy track is accelerating.

From Google to Microsoft, tech giants have set their sights on this trillion-dollar market. This is not only a barometer of the energy revolution, but also represents the birth of a new blue ocean for investment. In the technological wave triggered by AI, nuclear energy is redefining the energy landscape, and small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) have opened up a new era of nuclear energy monetization. From veteran nuclear energy giants to emerging SMR companies, this sector is brewing huge investment opportunities for the next decade.

AI is triggering an arms race among tech giants, with a focus on the planning and construction of large data centers

The trillion-dollar nuclear energy track, which 10x stocks will be born?

n the previous article, the RockFlow research team conducted an in-depth analysis of the business evolution process, latest business overview, and future stock price catalysts of AI advertising company AppLovin, which ranked first in the Nasdaq 100 Constituent Stock Index in 2024 (with an annual increase of 713%).

From being in deep trouble to later making a comeback, AppLovin's success was inseparable from the strategic transformation of acquiring multiple game studios, as well as the subsequent acquisitions and business integration of Adjust (a mobile data monitoring platform) and MoPub (an advertising trading platform that used to belong to Twitter). However, in fact, at that time, AppLovin most wanted to acquire a well-known game engine company - Unity.

In August 2022, AppLovin proposed to acquire Unity for $20 billion (a premium of up to 18%). Unfortunately, fate played a trick and Unity's shareowner rejected the proposal. Since then, Unity has made extremely bad decisions (especially trying to introduce a new pricing model), which not only successfully aroused the anger of most developers, but also led to the resignation of the initiator and former CEO John Riccitiello.

Today, two years later, the fate has reversed: AppLovin, which failed to acquire, became the annual stock king with a market value of over 100 billion US dollars, while Unity continued to decline with a market value of less than 10 billion US dollars; if it had accepted the transaction two years ago, its current value would exceed 50 billion US dollars.

In this article, the RockFlow investment research team will take you to explore the legendary game engine company Unity in depth. What is its growth history? What is the current business situation? Why did it take a completely different path from AppLovin? What is its future investment value?

1. Unity's growth history, business model, and money-making rules
Unity was founded in Denmark in 2004 by David Helgason (right), Nicholas Francis (left), and Joachim Ante (center). The company failed when it released its first video game in 2005, but they saw the value of building game power builders. So it adjusted its direction and revised its vision to make game development more "democratic" by making 2D and 3D interactive content development easier for various creators (not just professional developers) to use.

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Its early success relied heavily on the launch of iPhone 2007, when a large number of mobile game creators emerged one after another. The mobile game ecosystem gradually flourished.

Similar to Apple's idea of launching the App Store, in 2010, Unity launched the Asset Store, a trading platform for developers to sell project assets on. A few years later, the company began to expand from the gaming industry to industries such as movies and TV.

In 2014, Unity acquired Applifier (mobile ad platform), which was later renamed Unity Ads. In the same year, the company acquired two more companies: Playnomics (later Unity Analytics) and Tsugi (later Unity Cloud Build). In October of the same year, Helgason stepped down as CEO (but remained in the company as Executive Vice President) and was taken over by former Electronic Arts CEO John Riccitiello.

Facebook has also used Unity game engine many times to assist in the development of its VR projects. Due to the smooth progress of its own business, good relationships with large companies, and the intermittent heat of the VR industry, Unity successfully completed multiple rounds of financing, with a valuation of $3 billion in 2016. Since 2017, Unity has begun to cooperate with Google to carry out risk investment related to AR and VR.

In September 2020, Unity went public with an initial market capitalization of $13.70 billion.

As a game engine giant, Unity allows creators to create and manipulate interactive, real-time 2D and 3D content. There are four keywords in this sentence:

Creators. They are direct users of Unity and use its software to develop content. Creators include game developers, artists, architects, car designers, filmmakers, etc. Creators have different levels of professional knowledge, and people without development backgrounds can also learn to use Unity. This is consistent with Unity's original vision: to promote the democratization of game development.
Interactive. Game plugins developed based on the Unity game engine allow end users (i.e. gamers) to connect with content and each other. In multiplayer games, one user's behavior immediately affects another user's experience.
Real-time. The Unity game engine can adapt to user behavior and feedback in near real-time, and the image rendering speed is very fast, enough to create realistic experiences.
3D. The Unity game engine supports 3D graphics scenes, which enables the company to play a role in the AR and VR fields, thereby enhancing its value in multiple other industries.
Unity's game engine not only allows developers to visualize and iterate in real time, but also to collaborate with each other to edit content simultaneously. The presentation and display speed of these contents is very fast, and the development experience is seamless and efficient enough. More importantly, it allows creators to deploy on many platforms without additional development.

Unity provides many products through two complementary solutions: Create Solutions and Operate Solutions. In addition, it earns money through partnerships with multiple technology providers and sales revenue from asset stores.

Create Solutions enables creators to create, edit, run, and deploy real-time 2D and 3D content through a development engine. Creating once can be deployed on more than 20 platforms, including Windows, Mac, iOS, Android, PlayStation, etc. Unity provides a Modularization platform where creators can freely call up what they need, so they can achieve "personalization" according to their needs.

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How does Unity specifically profit? The company's Create Solutions is mainly based on a subscription revenue model. Previously, creators with income below $100,000 were allowed to use it for free. This means that Unity only charges large companies and is very friendly to smaller creators. The following figure outlines the core plan.

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Operate Solutions belongs to another business module. After creating and deploying content, Unity will continue to help creators grow, operate, monetize, and provide other services to their end-user base.

To this end, Unity has developed various products, such as Unity Ads, Unity In-App Purchase (IAP), Delta DNA, and Vivox. Not only can games be connected to the AD Network to help creators monetize, but it can also allow creators to directly sell various items in the game, provide analysis of player behavior, and even help enable text or voice chat functions in the game. Unity has not disclosed the revenue contribution of different products, but it is estimated that Unity Ads accounts for the majority.

The operational solution enables Unity to generate revenue from the continuous management and success of content developed by creators, whether created on Unity or using third-party software. This is a long-term business that helps Unity profit from the growing gaming industry.

The above two businesses account for more than 90% of Unity's revenue, while the rest mainly comes from partners and other sources of revenue. "Partners" are actually Unity's customers, including hardware, operating system, and console game developers who pay fees to Unity so that games developed on the Unity platform are compatible with their own platforms. For example, Microsoft, Sony, and others pay Unity so that content created on the Unity engine can be immediately used on their own platforms.

Other income is mainly generated through the Asset Store. Unity charges a 30% commission for each sale of the Asset Store. This is also an important part of Unity, which simplifies the development of many inexperienced creators and helps Unity achieve its ultimate goal of democratizing game development.

2. Different choices between Unity and Applovin as ad platforms
Historically, although Unity's business has developed well, its profitability has always been poor. As its business involves game advertising and marketing, it directly competes with the dominant Applovin. Unfortunately, Applovin can achieve unprecedented advertising accuracy by integrating massive data from AD Network, game users, and MAX platform, thereby driving advertising revenue to regain high-speed growth in 2023, while Unity's advertising business has basically stagnated in the past two years.

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The core of the game ad platform is to help paying customers achieve higher ROI goals, which is largely driven by data and algorithms. The more data and algorithm matching, the higher the advertising placement efficiency and profit margin of the platform.

As for Unity, they do have a large amount of data and acquired IronSource at a great cost (about 74% premium) in 2022, but the business integration process was too slow. The CEO of Unity introduced the progress of competition with Applovin in Q1 2024 as follows:

"Frankly speaking, we have two data departments that are not fully integrated with each other. This year, we will complete the integration of the two, fully utilize more data, and use it to train our models.

We will launch these products on a larger scale and expect the situation to improve by the second half of 2024. We have already had some large customers of Max (Applovin's intermediary platform) switch to LevelPlay. We believe we are narrowing the gap with AppLovin.

No one wants to have only one partner, customers want to see competition. They still expect us to catch up. "

Looking at Applovin, it not only has a strong development momentum, but also continuously improves its AI advertising engine AXON. The company's CEO stated during the Q1 2024 financial report conference call:

"With the development of our business, there are two key points that need to be understood. Firstly, a key driver of our growth is the continuous improvement of AXON. Our model is still in the early stages and will continue to self-improve. Our team is still looking for ways to substantially improve the algorithm. Although these benefits may be unpredictable, they may bring performance far beyond expectations.

Secondly, our algorithm and advertising engine are not limited to games. By expanding to web-based marketing and e-commerce advertising, we expect the AXON model to further improve as demand diversity increases. "

By comparison, the difference is clear. Applovin understood the value of data and AI early on. Therefore, in the trend of the gaming industry turning into a recession in 2022, not only did it efficiently integrate the MoPub platform, but it also continued to focus on optimizing and training the AI model AXON. This is also an important reliance on it to continuously achieve better-than-expected performance in 2023 and 2024.

As for Unity, after enjoying the rapid growth of the gaming industry in 2021, it thought its prospects were unlimited. However, with the industry downturn in 2022, it has experienced many difficulties and a long journey of transformation.

3. After ups and downs, Unity's long transformation has finally paid off
In 2022, with the suspension of the epidemic and the reopening of the economy, the gaming industry is no longer prosperous. With the number of layoffs in the gaming industry reaching a historic high, some analysts believe that the industry's downturn is the most severe since the Atari crash in 1983. Almost every month, there are reports of large-scale layoffs or complete closures of a large studio.

However, the reason why Unity's stock price plummeted more than 90% from its peak in 2021 to its lowest point in 2024 is mainly due to the company's own problems.

The most notorious of these was in September 2023, when under the leadership of former CEO John Riccitiello, Unity attempted to significantly increase developer fees (the new policy required charging based on the number of downloads of Unity games or applications). This move sparked public anger, and developers turned to competing development engines such as Unreal and Godot in large numbers. In the end, Unity had no choice but to withdraw the policy update, and Riccitiello was forced to leave Unity.

In addition, under the leadership of the former CEO, Unity conducted multiple mergers and acquisitions over a period of 9 years, acquiring companies such as Weta Digital and IronSource, most of which were later proven to be major mistakes. Taking Weta as an example, Unity paid $1.60 billion for this digital special effects company, but shut it down completely a few years later.

Frankly speaking, Unity at this stage is a bit like Google, investing a lot of resources in other projects far from the core business. This is feasible for Google because its search business has a very strong cash flow. But Unity simply does not have enough resources to waste.

Fortunately, under the new CEO in 2024, Unity has taken several necessary measures to get back on track, including a 25% layoff in 2024. This is considered necessary because Unity's workforce has expanded rapidly since its IPO, recruiting heavily for various non-core projects and absorbing a large number of personnel due to multiple mergers and acquisitions.

Although Unity, which has significantly reduced non-essential business, is expected to see a decrease of about 18% in full-year revenue in 2024 compared to 2023, its core business revenue unexpectedly increased and improved in the third quarter of 2024. At the same time, the company will get rid of cost burdens in 2025, and its revenue situation will become clearer.

Meanwhile, the entire gaming industry has experienced the turbulence of the past few years and is expected to start stabilizing. The global gaming market revenue in 2023 is about $184 billion, and analysts predict that this number will grow to about $500 billion by 2033. Therefore, Unity may once again enjoy a favorable situation in the industry.

The RockFlow research team believes that Unity still has the potential to become the dominant player in the gaming industry, just as Spotify and Netflix have captured most of the market share in music and video streaming media.

In addition, considering that there are currently only two main independent game engines, Unity and Unreal. Although Unreal is most suitable for high-end games, its drawback is that it is not easy for developers to use and does not run well on low-end game consoles and PCs. Rivals such as Godot engine are good for smaller game projects, but difficult to meet the needs of high-cost games. Overall, Unity has achieved a good balance between producing a good enough graphical interface and making it easy for novice developers to master.

Moreover, reviewing the previous fee policy controversy, Unity still has a strong competitive advantage. At that time, developers generally resisted or gave up Unity, choosing Godot or other solutions, but ultimately returned to Unity due to ease of use, asset store, and platform interoperability. Although Unity's measures were very unwise, this negative event still highlights the potential value and irreplaceability of Unity game development engine.

RockFlow's research team believes that Unity and its main competitor Unreal will gain a larger market share in the future. Due to the decline of the gaming industry in the past, many large game studios have integrated their businesses and reduced their staff, and practitioners' interest in continuing to develop proprietary game engines has decreased. Developers are increasingly aware that employers may fire them at any time, so they are less willing to work in proprietary engines. This is undoubtedly good news for Unity, which supports development on all major platforms.

In summary, in the future, a portion of game development will still shift from proprietary engines to Unity or Unreal, which will enable Unity to occupy a larger share in the continuously expanding market.

4. Conclusion
According to the latest financial report, Unity's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations and has raised its future performance guidance. The RockFlow research team believes that Unity's worst period may have passed.

On the battlefield of game development engines, Unity has played a legendary role. It went public in 2020 and was once regarded as a pioneer of game development democratization. However, the cogs of fate are always unexpected: in 2022, Unity, which rejected AppLovin's $20 billion acquisition offer, now has a market value of only $9.20 billion, while its pursuer AppLovin has risen to a technology giant with a market value of hundreds of billions of dollars.

In this essentially data integration and AI application competition, Unity is indeed lagging behind. However, despite the subsequent pricing turmoil and management turmoil, with its profound technical accumulation and industry status, Unity's story is far from over in the fertile land of game development engines.

n the previous article, the RockFlow research team conducted an in-depth analysis of the business evolution process

How can game engine giant Unity redeem itself after missing AI and $20 billion acquisition offers?

n an article a few months ago, the RockFlow research team summarized the true Competitive Edge of NVIDIA, a leading AI company, and why we believe that NVIDIA is not only a great company, but also a potential investment target with high returns.

In fact, in addition to NVIDIA itself, the key tracks and companies it invests in and focuses on are also repeatedly sought after by the US stock market. The market believes that NVIDIA's investment decisions are based on a deep understanding and forward-looking judgment of the development of AI technology, often representing the direction of industry development, and companies that receive its investment may enjoy multiple benefits such as technical support, chip supply, and ecological resources. Therefore, NVIDIA concept stocks are expected to share the huge dividends of AI transformation, which is particularly worth paying attention to.

In this article, the RockFlow investment research team will provide you with an in-depth analysis of the concept stocks held by NVIDIA, helping you understand their long-term investment value and feasible investment strategies (Note: This article does not include ARM as a research target, it is also one of NVIDIA's holdings, but its market value has already exceeded $100 billion and does not belong to the range of hundreds of millions to billions studied in this article).

1. Serve Robotics (SERV) , focuses on developing automatic delivery robots
What do AI leader NVIDIA and the world's largest ride-hailing platform Uber have in common? The answer is that they both favor an autonomous delivery robot company.

Uber has partnered with 14 different companies to develop its autonomous driving platform as it looks forward to the mobile industry getting rid of human drivers. Technologies such as autonomous driving and robotics are driven by AI, and Nvidia has also developed its own autonomous driving platform. Together, the two have chosen to invest in SERV, a $600 million company that develops autonomous delivery robots. Together, they own over 20% of SERV's outstanding shares, indicating that they are optimistic about the company's prospects.

In most cities in North America, the efficiency of existing last-mile delivery solutions is quite low. Companies like Uber Eats and DoorDash rely on delivery drivers who usually use cars to deliver food and other products to customers. SERV once raised a thoughtful question: Why use two-ton cars to transport two-pound Mexican burritos?

Robots and drones may be better solutions. SERV states that hardware and software costs related to developing AI and automation are rapidly decreasing, making robots an increasingly economical choice. It predicts that once the adoption rate of robots continues to increase and the business scale expands, the cost per delivery will eventually be as low as $1.

SERV's robots have Level 4 autonomous driving capability, which means they can drive on sidewalks in designated areas without human intervention. Since early 2022, the company's robots have delivered over 50,000 orders to more than 400 restaurants in Los Angeles, with a reliability rate of up to 99.94%. SERV says this makes the robots 10 times more reliable than human drivers.

The company's latest Gen3 robot is the smartest and fastest robot to date, with a top speed of up to 11 miles per hour. Thanks to NVIDIA's Jetson Orin technology, which includes the hardware and software required for advanced robotics and computer vision, the Gen3 is five times more powerful than the previous generation of SERV robots. It has a faster top speed, greater range, and longer operating time, all of which means a 50% reduction in operating costs.

According to the contract signed with Uber, SERV is committed to deploying 2,000 new robots by the end of 2025, which will expand it to other areas of California, as well as Dallas and Fort Worth in Texas. This is also a victory for Uber. If the plan is successful, the company will save money by reducing the use of manual delivery drivers.

SERV was previously spun off from Postmates, which was acquired by Uber, and became an independent entity in 2021. However, Uber remains SERV's largest investor, holding 12% of the stock. Nvidia has invested in SERV since 2022 and currently holds 10% of the stock.

RockFlow's investment research team believes that its long-term investment value is mainly reflected in factors such as leading technology, huge market potential, long-term cost advantages compared to manual delivery, and clear business models. In the future, with the continuous growth of automation demand, SERV will have more application scenarios to expand.

2. Nebius Group (NBIS), Emerging AI Cloud Service Provider
Nebius is a Cloud Service and AI infrastructure service provider. On December 2, 2024, the company announced the completion of a $700 million financing round, with participation from venture capital firms Accel, NVIDIA, and Orbis Investments. The proceeds from the financing will be used to further build large-scale GPU clusters, expand the Cloud Computing Platform, and provide developers with more tools and services to fully support the innovative development of global AI pioneers.

NBIS's AI services rely heavily on NVIDIA's high-end GPUs. This financing will provide momentum for NBIS, accelerate the construction of more advanced AI infrastructure, and deepen its strategic partnership with NVIDIA. With NVIDIA's advanced technology support, NBIS can provide customers with more efficient and powerful computing platforms, thereby enhancing competitiveness in multiple key areas such as Cloud Services, Big Data Analysis, and AI development.

NVIDIA's technological advantages have significant strategic value for NBIS. By acquiring NVIDIA's latest GPU and AI acceleration hardware, NBIS can not only enhance its infrastructure's computing power, but also quickly adapt to the growth of global AI application demand, providing customers with efficient and scalable solutions.

In fact, NBIS became a certified partner of NVIDIA as early as Q3 2023. It has already deployed a large number of NVIDIA H100 GPUs for AI training, and the two parties have deep cooperation and jointly developed enterprise-level AI solutions.

RockFlow's investment research team believes that the long-term investment value of NBIS includes the growth potential of the AI and Cloud Service markets, competitive technological strength in the AI infrastructure field, high-quality enterprise customer base, advanced technology support from NVIDIA, and sustained revenue from subscription models. Therefore, its future performance is worth looking forward to.

3. SoundHound AI (SOUN), AI empowers voice for strong growth
As a super bull stock in the AI sector this year, SoundHound AI's stock price has soared by more than 600%, surpassing NVIDIA.

SOUN disclosed a record high third-quarter revenue last month and raised its full-year revenue forecast, citing the company's successful expansion of its target market. CEO Keyvan Mohajer stated in the third-quarter financial report statement: "We believe that speech is an extremely attractive application in applied generative AI."

During the earnings call, SOUN updated the progress of its Polaris large-scale language model. Mohajer said that Polaris has taken the company's proprietary Automatic Speech Recognition technology to new heights. Polaris learns based on billions of real conversations accumulated by the company over the years and over 1 million hours of audio files in dozens of languages. They have put Polaris into practical applications, and the results are excellent. Accuracy has significantly improved while reducing hosting costs. It is said that Polaris currently handles about one-third of the AI interactions handled by SOUN for catering customers.

In addition, NVIDIA is not only a shareholder of SOUN, but also its partner. Earlier this year, SOUN announced an in-car voice assistant that uses a large language model and operates on NVIDIA's DRIVE technology.

SOUN's outstanding performance has attracted numerous funds. Investors believe that its AI voice products have strong demand in various industries such as automobiles, catering, Financial Services, healthcare, and insurance, and SOUN has the ability to continuously improve the industrial diversification of its solutions.

RockFlow research team believes that given the rapid progress of SOUN's AI business, not only has it launched a new generation of automatic speech recognition engine and developed a multilingual real-time translation system, but its AI assistant has also been used to handle complex conversations. In the future, it will continue to expand vertical industry applications, thereby bringing more revenue conversion.

4. Applied Digital (APLD), AI Cloud as Service Company to Benefit from Increased Computing Demand
APLD designs, develops, and operates digital infrastructure solutions and Cloud as a Service, high-performance computing, and AI industries in North America. In September of this year, the AI cloud company received $160 million in financing from investors including NVIDIA and related companies. According to statistics, NVIDIA's total shareholding in digital infrastructure solution developer APLD is about 7.72 million shares, worth about $63.66 million, equivalent to 3% of APLD's stock.

In the wave of artificial intelligence, NVIDIA has been increasing its investment to support companies using its chips. As for APLD, it has a close relationship with NVIDIA: as early as July 2023, it announced a partnership to build an AI supercomputing center, not only purchasing a large number of NVIDIA H100 GPUs, but also obtaining NVIDIA technical support certification.

In the past few quarters, APLD's AI business development has been very successful. Not only have they built multiple AI computing clusters and provided AI Model Training infrastructure, but they have also developed sustainable energy AI computing solutions and continuously expanded AI Cloud as a Service. In July 2023, APLD signed a huge contract with Character.AI, which is a well-known case. In December 2023, APLD announced a long-term contract (without disclosing the customer), demonstrating the market's confidence in its business.

RockFlow research team believes that with the growth in demand for AI computing power, APLD's stock price will also bring surprises.

5. Nano-X Imaging (NNOX), AI medical care, auxiliary diagnosis is expected to play a greater value
AI healthcare company Nano-X Imaging has developed a commercial-grade tomography device with a digital X-ray source, providing remote radiology services and developing AI applications for real-world medical imaging applications.

More importantly, the company's Nanox. CLOUD can use a matching engine to match medical images with radiologists, providing image repositories, connections to diagnostic-assisted artificial intelligence systems, billing, and reporting. Its MARKETPLACE platform can provide AI-based software imaging solutions for hospitals, health maintenance organizations, comprehensive medical networks, pharmaceutical companies, and insurance companies, aiming to identify or predict undiagnosed or underestimated medical conditions such as osteoporosis and cardiovascular disease by mining data from existing computed tomography images.

This company has received funding led by Foxconn and SK Telecom multiple times in 2020. Its relationship with NVIDIA can be traced back to last year. In Q4 2023, NNOX began using the NVIDIA Clara platform, and its AI medical image analysis has also long used NVIDIA GPUs. In addition, NNOX has long received support from NVIDIA's Medical AI Acceleration Program.

The RockFlow research team believes that NNOX's current AI progress is mainly reflected in the development of AI-assisted diagnostic systems, the launch of cloud-based medical image analysis platforms, algorithms for screening various diseases with AI, and the continuous expansion of medical image databases that can be used for AI analysis. In the future, with the expansion of AI capabilities, it will still play a huge value.

6. Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX), AI-driven drug development will bring about a new revolution
From drug development to US FDA approval for marketing, it can take more than 15 years and cost up to $2.50 billion. The initial arduous task of drug development can take months to over a year to complete. After spending millions of dollars, up to 90% of candidate drugs often fail clinical trials.

RXRX utilizes AI, automated biology, high-throughput screening, and Machine Learning algorithms to identify and predict the efficacy of potential drug targets, thereby accelerating the drug discovery process. It has a huge proprietary chemical and biological database called Recursions Data Universe, with a scale of over 23 PB, including data on proteins, genes, and pathways related to diseases. Its Recursion Map contains billions of searchable chemical and biological inferences, and can conduct millions of wet laboratory experiments per week.

RXRX can evaluate potential drug failures earlier, saving millions of dollars and bringing drugs to market faster and more efficiently. RXRX has established partnerships with Bayer and Roche Holding Company.

In July 2023, NVIDIA invested $50 million in RXRX to help accelerate the development of its AI drug discovery model. In February 2024, NVIDIA officially announced that it held about $76 million of RXRX stock. RXRX has long used the DGX SuperPOD system developed by NVIDIA, and the two are also jointly developing a digital biological platform.

RockFlow's research team believes that AI innovation still has great potential in medical applications and drug development, including building biological data mapping technology, AI-driven drug discovery platforms, machine learning to predict drug effects, and laboratory automation. RXRX is involved in all of these areas, and its future is still full of considerable value-added potential.

7. Conclusion
RockFlow's investment research team believes that tracking NVIDIA's holdings of concept stocks has important reference value. Investors can continue to pay attention to NVIDIA's increase in holdings, AI monetization progress, revenue growth and gross profit margin changes, new product/service releases, and changes in the industry competition landscape. From past stock price fluctuations, NVIDIA's new investments, technological breakthrough announcements, and performance turning point confirmation are all good entry opportunities.

However, it should be reminded that rational analysis is needed when investing, focusing on the company's fundamentals and long-term development capabilities, and avoiding simple follow-up speculation. In addition, diversified investment, setting stop-loss, and regular rebalancing are also important strategies for risk control.

In fact, in addition to NVIDIA itself, the key tracks and companies it invests in and focuses on are also repeatedly sought after

NVIDIA concept stock: 6 major AI tracks, who will bring the next tenfold return?

AI-powered cyber security stocks: the most undervalued opportunities in 2025

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